Solo: A Star Wars Story is the first film in the franchise since Disney bought Lucasfilm that could bomb. If it did, what would that mean for the future of Star Wars?
With only three months to go until the film reaches cinemas, Solo remains a topic of much discussion; how and why the studio have managed to keep a tight lid on one of 2018's most anticipated films? The trailer was received with much enthusiasm, which will probably bring some relief to Disney given the unusual position Solo is in for a Star Wars movie; this will be the fourth film released in the franchise since the Disney acquisition, the second anthology following Rogue One, and the first whose success is not a guaranteed thing.
Related: Solo: A Star Wars Story Trailer Breakdown
While the trailer seemed to alleviate some fan concerns, there's a lot working against the film, with production issues looming large; between the firing of the original directors (The Lego Movie's Phil Lord and Christopher Miller were replaced by Oscar-winner Ron Howard), the subsequent extension of reshoots, and reports main star Alden Ehrenreich needed a last-minute acting coach, Solo has been a movie mired in confusion for many months now. This is nothing unique to the franchise - Rogue One famously underwent major reshoots, and Colin Trevorrow was replaced as director of Star Wars 9 by J.J. Abrams - but the sheer scale of the carnage has made some uneasy. Following the backlash from some subsets of fans to The Last Jedi, the fate of Solo has suddenly gained greater weight than the possibility of a mere flop in Disney's canon.
This Page: Will Solo: A Star Wars Story Be A Flop?
Will Solo: A Star Wars Story Be A Flop?
Before such scenarios can be theorized, it's important to define what a œflop is under these circumstances. In the age of mega-budget multi-film expanded universe blockbuster filmmaking, success can be a deceptive thing. Traditionally speaking, a film can be judged as a hit for the studio if it makes back two-and-a-half times its budget. This helps to account not only for the cost of making the picture but for marketing and distributing it to the world. Therefore, a film that costs $100m needs to make at least $250m to break even. Of course, the more money it makes, the better, and Disney have gotten very used to cracking that much-coveted $1 billion box office ceiling. Of the 32 films that have grossed over $1 billion worldwide, Disney made 16 of them.
This record is also true of Star Wars. Although it's still a big chunk of change away from reaching The Force Awakens's $2bn, The Last Jedi is still the 9th highest grossing film ever, while Rogue One also made over $1 billion. The benchmark is clearly in place for what Disney expect from Solo (in fact, the only entry in the series to not break a billion adjusted for inflation is Attack of the Clones); this is a billion dollar vehicle, and not reaching that will inspire much debate over the franchise's future.
But is that a fair measure? Even if Solo doesn't make that kind of money, it'll still probably make enough to be at least financially sound. If it can crack $750 million (the film's budget is unknown, although it has been reported Howard's reshoots doubled the budget), it's in firm profit and will rank as one of 2018's highest grossers, potentially proving Star Wars can overcome any hurdle.
Related: Hollywood's Box Office Problems Are Its Own Fault
And that's nothing on the real measure: quality. Most viewers don't care all that much about box office revenue or inter-studio planning. Their main concerns will be if the film does good on the legacy of one of the franchise's most beloved characters. That's a different matter (and one that could have a knock-on effect on the film's box office legs). Solo being a disaster? That's unlikely. It underwhelming? All bets are off.
What Changes Could A Solo Flop Lead To?
So, what if Solo flops? Do Disney change track on this multi-billion dollar venture they have massive investments in? Or is Star Wars as a bigger brand safe regardless of what happens to Han?
Frankly, it would take a major loss of money on the part of Solo for Star Wars to be drastically affected, but under-performing numbers may see the studio adjust how they focus on the more out-there projects; those gargantuan budgets The Last Jedi officially cost $200m to make could be rolled back.
The biggest impact the film could have - and maybe already is having - is in how Lucasfilm choose their Star Wars directors. Initially, they seemed to be focusing more on giving bright young fans-turned-filmmakers with untapped potential the reins of the operation, and while that paid off well at first, the mess with Lord and Miller certainly rattled a few cages. As a result, they seem to be moving towards hiring reliable figures with proven big-budget track records (see Stephen Daldry being in talks to direct Kenobi). After all, even if Solo gets horrendous reviews, it may be tough to pin all that on Ron Howard given how quickly he came in to replace his predecessors; should Solo not be a hit, that type of thinking is sure to continue.
Related: Star Wars Has Always Had Director Problems Why?
There's also the bigger point of focus. The most successful Disney-era Star Wars films so far have, obviously, been the core series entries. Fans are more inclined to see the movies with the characters they know and love, and form an essential part of the ongoing story. Han Solo is one of modern pop culture's great icons, but does Solo offer enough to people still reeling from the end of The Last Jedi? As such, the key impact could be on type; this is another anthology movie, so any problems with Solo could lead to a shift in another direction.
Star Wars May Not Need To Course Correct
That said, the direction change could have started anyway; we're already getting that with Rian Johnson's trilogy and the new series from David Benioff and D.B. Weiss, suggesting the franchise won't be mired in filling inter-trilogy gaps anyway. Star Wars is always thinking years (if not decades) ahead at a time, and while that creates some rigidity, so far it's been evidently clear they're not resting on the basic laurels. Indeed, the franchise is set to expand in fresh directions away from the big screen; aside from the already existing books, comics, games and other canon materials, multiple Star Wars TV shows are on the way.
Ultimately, it's foolish to bet against Disney. Their power is immeasurable, their influence endless, and the loyalty they command from audiences enviable. The bubble may burst on them at some time in the future but right now they're the safest bet in the house. The insecurity around Solo is only notable in that it highlights how everything else around it is so safe. If it stumbles, the chances are it will be a mere anomaly more than something the studio places all their hopes in. Hit, flop or somewhere in-between, Solo will be its own thing, and not something Star Wars as a whole needs to panic over.
Next: Every Reveal From EW's Solo: A Star Wars Story Coverage
